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Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Test for Doctors
A test of a disease presents a rate of 5% false positives
.
The disease strikes 1/1,000 of the population
..
People are tested at random, regardless of whether they are suspected of having the disease or not
.
A Patent's test is positive
.
What is the probability of the patient being stricken with the disease?
.
Most doctors answered 95% simply taking into account the fact that the test has a 95% accuracy rate
.
The answer is the conditional probability that the patient is sick and the tests show it close to 2%
.
Less than one in five doctors got this right
.
An embarrassing result for the medical profession!
.
Think of the number of times you will be given a medication that carries damaging side effects for a given disease you were told you had, when you may only have a 2% probability of being infected with it!
.
The above was taken from Deborah Bennett's 'Randomness'
Ask questions of your doctor
There are good, bad and indifferent doctors
As there are used car salesmen or engineers
Most doctors today are under pressure
Most proscribe 'something' to every patient
Why?
Because patients expect 'something'
And pills or potions are 'something'
So ask questions when you do not understand
Or when you feel uneasy
It's your life or that of your child maybe
Your health is the most important thing you have, you personally that is
Take responsibility for your own life and health
When in doubt get a second opinion
Ask questions go online
If your Doctor does not like answering questions then consider changing doctors
If he treats you like a grade A moron then consider changing doctors
Your health is too important to be looked after by anyone other than yourself
Inform yourself
Take responsibility for your own health
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