An era of cheap food has come to an end.
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A combination of factors—rising demand in India and China
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A dietary shift away from cereals towards meat and vegetables
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The increasing use of maize as a fuel, and developments outside agriculture
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Such as the fall in the dollar—have brought to a close a period starting in the early 1970s in which the real price of staple crops (rice, wheat and maize) fell year after year
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This has come as a shock.
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By the 1990s most agricultural problems seemed to have been solved.
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Yields were rising, pests appeared under control and fertilisers were replenishing tired soil.
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The exciting areas of research in life sciences were no longer plants but things like HIV/AIDS
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The end of the era of cheap food has coincided with growing concern about the prospects of feeding the world.
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Around the turn of 2011-12 the global population is forecast to rise to 7 billion, stirring Malthusian fears.
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The price rises have once again plunged into poverty millions of people who spend more than half their income on food.
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The numbers of those below the poverty level of $1.25 a day, which had been falling consistently in the 1990s, rose sharply in 2007-08.
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That seems to suggest that the world cannot even feed its current population, let alone the 9 billion expected by 2050.
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Adding further to the concerns is climate change, of which agriculture is both cause and victim.
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So how will the world cope in the next four decades?
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Because food is so important, agriculture—more than any other form of economic activity—is expected to achieve a series of competing and overlapping goals that change over time and from place to place.
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The world looks to farmers to do more than just produce food.
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Agriculture is also central to reducing hunger (which is not quite the same thing) and provides many people’s main route out of poverty.
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Food is probably the biggest single influence on people’s health, though in radically different ways in poor countries and in rich ones, where the big problem now is obesity.
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Food is also one of the few pleasures available to the poorest.
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In the favelas (slums) of São Paulo, the largest city in South America, takeaway pizza parlours are proliferating because many families, who often do not have proper kitchens, now order a pizza at home to celebrate special occasions.
Given these conflicting aims, it is not surprising that the food crisis has produced contradictory accounts of the main problem and radically different proposals for solving it.
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One group is concerned mainly about feeding the world’s growing population.
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It argues that high and volatile prices will make the job harder and that more needs to be done to boost supplies through the spread of modern farming, plant research and food processing in poor countries.
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For those in this group—food companies, plant breeders and international development agencies—the Green Revolution was a stunning success and needs to be followed by a second one now.
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The alternative view is sceptical of, or even downright hostile to, the modern food business.
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This group, influential among non-governmental organisations and some consumers, concentrates more on the food problems of richer countries, such as concerns about animal welfare and obesity.
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It argues that modern agriculture produces food that is tasteless, nutritionally inadequate and environmentally disastrous.
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It thinks the Green Revolution has been a failure, or at least that it has done more environmental damage and brought fewer benefits than anyone expected.
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An influential book espousing this view, Michael Pollan’s “The Omnivore’s Dilemma”, starts by asking: “What should we have for dinner?”
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By contrast, those worried about food supplies wonder: “Will there be anything for dinner?
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It argues that many of their claims are justified: feeding the world in 2050 will be hard, and business as usual will not do it.
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The report looks at ways to boost yields of the main crops, considers the constraints of land and water and the use of fertiliser and pesticide, assesses biofuel policies, explains why technology matters so much and examines the impact of recent price rises.
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It points out that although the concerns of the critics of modern agriculture may be understandable, the reaction against intensive farming is a luxury of the rich.
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Traditional and organic farming could feed Europeans and Americans well.
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It cannot feed the world.
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The debate will continue on amongst academics
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One thing for sure though 9 billion of us introduces new and unavoidable challenges
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Challenges most third world countries are unable to meet
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And the rest of us?
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Where is our consciousness of these issues?
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Starving people will do what they have to in order to survive
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And that will involve us all, not just the academics
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Arab unrest is not just about their style or type of government
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Add in the increasing number of 'natural disasters' affecting food production and it is certainly true that we live in 'interesting times'.
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