Waiting to blow

Estimates from local and foreign watchdogs show corruption now swallowing between a third and half of Russia's gross domestic product and state spending rising on inefficient projects.

Rapid growth in spending has already widened Russia's non-oil and gas fiscal deficit to 10 percent of GDP.
.
It has also pushed up the fiscal break even oil price to around $117 per barrel for 2012
.
Economists worry that things may grow even more troublesome if Putin keeps his promise and spends around $170 billion on a six-year social programme he touted during his election campaign.
.
Some estimate that these added costs would push the oil price that Russia needs to break even as high as $130.
.
While things might remain stable for a while yet, corruption is now totally endemic.
.
Many Russian bureaucrats actually believe it is their right to steal money.
.
And in a recent research survey said that they saw nothing wrong in so doing.
.
When corruption becomes endemic social unrest increases.
.
To tackle endemic corruption requires agreement of the countries leaders.
.
This cannot be achieved when many of these are also involved.
.
Catch 22 for Putin.
.
One thing can be said with certainty.
.
The situation will not continue without further unrest at some point.
.
At what point?
.
Probably through an event that is not foreseeable today.
.
A black swan.
.
Russia is not the same place it was ten years ago.
.
Not sure that the leaders 'get it'.
.
Not sure they care either.
.
However events are likely to change this attitude.
.
Sadly it remains a dream that Russia will one day have the rule of law
.
That one day it will have an independent media and judicial system.
.
However without these three legs of government, media and the judicial system being autonomous and acting as a check and balance on each other nothing much can change.