Wednesday, May 23, 2012

A world of numbers



Try to imagine a day without numbers.
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Try to imagine getting through the first hour of that day.
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No alarm clock, no time, no date, no television or radio, no stock market report or sports results in the newspapers, no bank account to check.
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The fact is, our lives depend on numbers.
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You may not have "a head for figures", but you certainly have a head full of them.
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Most of what we do each day is conditioned by numbers.
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Indeed, the degree to which our modern society depends on those that are hidden from us was made clear by the financial meltdown in 2008, when overconfident reliance on the advanced mathematics of the credit market led to a collapse of the global financial system.
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How did we become so familiar with, and so reliant on, these abstractions that our ancestors invented just a few thousand years ago?
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By the latter part of the first millennium AD, the system we use today to write numbers and do arithmetic had been worked out – expressing any number using just the 10 numerals 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and adding, subtracting, multiplying, and dividing them by the procedures we are all taught in primary school.
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This familiar way to write numbers and do arithmetic is known as the Hindu-Arabic system, a name that reflects its history.
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Before the 13th century, however, the only Europeans aware of this system were, by and large, scholars, who used it solely to do mathematics.
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Traders recorded their data using Roman numerals, and performed calculations either by using their fingers or with a mechanical abacus.
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That state of affairs started to change soon after 1202, the year a young Italian man, Leonardo of Pisa, whom a historian centuries later would dub "Fibonacci", completed the first general-purpose book of arithmetic in the West.
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Liber abbaci explained the "new" methods in terms understandable to ordinary people – and its influence did as much as any other book to shape the development of modern Western Europe.
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Leonardo had learnt about the Hindu-Arabic number system when his father took him to the north African port of Bugia (now Bejaïa, in Algeria) in around 1185.
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Years later, his book would provide not only a bridge that allowed arithmetic to cross the Mediterranean, but also one between the mathematical cultures of the Arabic and European worlds.
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It was an act every bit as revolutionary as the one carried out by personal computer pioneers in the Eighties who took computing from a small group of "computer types" and made it available to, and usable by, anyone.
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Not only did the appearance of Liber abbaci prepare the stage for the development of modern algebra and hence modern mathematics, but it also marked the beginning of the modern financial system and the way of doing business that depends on sophisticated banking methods.
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Until recently, history had relegated Leonardo to a footnote.
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Indeed, his name is known today primarily in connection with the Fibonacci numbers, a sequence that arises from the solution to the "rabbit problem", one of many whimsical challenges he put in Liber abbaci to break the tedium of the hundreds of practical problems that dominate the book.
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Nestled between puzzles involving the division of food and money, the rabbit problem involves an attempt to count a growing population. 
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Leonardo did not invent it: it dates back at least to the Indian mathematicians who developed the number system that Liber abbaci described.
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But he realised, as they did, that it was an excellent way to practise how to use the new number system.
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In what was to become his most famous passage, Leonardo wrote his way into 20th-century popular culture with these words:
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A certain man had one pair of rabbits together in a certain enclosed place, and one wishes to know how many are created from the pair in one year when it is the nature of them in a single month to bear another pair, and in the second month those born to bear also.'' 
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Leonardo wanted the reader to assume that once two rabbits become fertile, they produce off-spring every month.
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As usual, he explained the solution in full detail, but the modern reader can rapidly discern the solution by glancing at the table Leonardo also presented, giving the rabbit population each month: one animal at the beginning, then two, then three, then five, then eight, then 13, then 21, then 34, then 55, then 89, then 144.
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The general rule is that each successive number is the result of adding together the previous two: 1 + 2 = 3, 2 + 3 = 5, 3 + 5 = 8, etc.
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The numbers generated by this process are known today as the Fibonacci numbers, and were given their name by the French mathematician Edouard Lucas in the 1870s, after his compatriot, the historian Guillaume Libri, gave Leonardo the nickname Fibonacci in 1838.
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One main reason why these numbers retain their fascination today is due to the surprising frequency with which they arise in nature. 
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For example, the number of petals on flowers is a Fibonacci number more often than would be expected from pure chance: an iris has three petals; primroses, buttercups, wild roses, larkspur, and columbine have five; delphiniums have eight; ragwort, corn marigold, and cineria 13; asters, black-eyed Susan, and chicory 21; daisies 13, 21, or 34; and Michaelmas daisies 55 or 89
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Sunflower heads, and the bases of pine cones exhibit spirals going in opposite directions: the sunflower has 21, 34, 55, 89, or 144 clockwise, paired respectively with 34, 55, 89, 144, or 233 counter clockwise; a pine cone has eight clockwise spirals and 13 counter clockwise.
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All Fibonacci numbers.
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In reality, however, a far more significant part of Leonardo's legacy than the Fibonacci sequence are the 14 medieval manuscripts of the Liber abbaci that have survived.
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It's a strange feeling to hold, as I have in Florence, a book written by a medieval scribe more than 800 years ago who played such a major part in the development of the modern world.
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Every age produces a few individuals who are both ahead of their time and of their time: figures such as Archimedes, Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler, Newton and Einstein.
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Today, Leonardo's name ought to be placed among them as one of the great individuals who has shaped our world.
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For we live with Leonardo's legacy every day – every time we do something that depends upon the modern arithmetic he brought to the West.
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 Keith Devlin

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Cyber warfare



Operation Locked Shields, an international military exercise held last month, was not exactly your usual game of soldiers. 
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It involves no loud bangs or bullets, no tanks, aircraft or camouflage face-paint. 
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Its troops rarely even left their control room, deep within a high security military base in Estonia.
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These people represent a new kind of combatant - the cyber warrior.
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One team of IT specialists taking part in Locked Shields, were detailed to attack nine other teams, located all over Europe.
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At their terminals in the Nato Co-operative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence, they cooked up viruses, worms, Trojan Horses and other internet attacks, to hijack and extract data from the computers of their pretend enemies.
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The idea was to learn valuable lessons in how to forestall such attacks on military and commercial networks. 
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The cyber threat is one that the Western alliance is taking seriously.
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It's no coincidence that Nato established its defence centre in Estonia. 
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In 2007, the country's banking, media and government websites were bombarded with Distributed Denial of Service (DDOS) attacks over a three week period, in what's since become known as Web War I. 
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The culprits are thought to have been pro-Russian hacktivists, angered by the removal of a Soviet-era statue from the centre of the capital, Tallinn.
DDOS attacks are quite straightforward.
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Networks of thousands of infected computers, known as botnets, simultaneously access the target website, which is overwhelmed by the volume of traffic, and so temporarily disabled.
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However, DDOS attacks are a mere blunderbuss by comparison with the latest digital weapons.
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Today, the fear is that Web War II - if and when it comes - could inflict physical damage, leading to massive disruption and even death.

They could cause power blackouts - not just by shutting off the power but by permanently damaging generators that would take months to replace.
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They could do things like cause [oil or gas] pipelines to explode.
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They could ground aircraft.
Clarke's worries are fuelled by the current tendency to put more of our lives online, and indeed, they appear to be borne out by experiments carried out in the United States.

Start Quote

A power station might have less anti-virus protection than the average laptop”
At the heart of the problem are the interfaces between the digital and physical worlds known as Scada - or Supervisory Control And Data Acquisition - systems.
Today, these computerised controllers have taken over a myriad jobs once performed manually.
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They do everything from opening the valves on pipelines to monitoring traffic signals.
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Soon, they'll become commonplace in the home, controlling smart appliances like central heating.
And crucially, they use cyberspace to communicate with their masters, taking commands on what to do next, and reporting any problems back.
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Into these networks, and in theory you have control of national electricity grids, water supplies, distribution systems for manufacturers or supermarkets, and other critical infrastructure.
In 2007, the United States Department of Homeland Security (DHS) demonstrated the potential vulnerability of Scada systems.
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Using malicious software to feed in the wrong commands, they attacked a large diesel generator.
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Film of the experiment shows the machine shaking violently before black smoke engulfs the screen.
Although this took place under laboratory conditions, with the attackers given free rein to do their worst, the fear is that, one day, a belligerent state, terrorists, or even recreational hackers, might do the same in the real world.
"Over the past several months we've seen a variety of things," says Jenny Mena of the DHS. "


There are now search engines that make it possible to find those devices that are vulnerable to an attack through the internet.
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In addition we've seen an increased interest in this area in the hacker and hacktivist community.
One reason why Scada systems may be prone to hacking is that engineers, rather than specialist programmers, are often likely to have designed their software.
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They are expert in their field, says German security consultant Ralph Langner, but not in cyber defence.
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At some point they learned how to develop software, but you can't compare them to professional software developers who probably spent a decade learning.
Moreover, critical infrastructure software can be surprisingly exposed.
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A power station, for example, might have less anti-virus protection than the average laptop.
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And when vulnerabilities are detected, it can be impossible to repair them immediately with a software patch. 
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It requires you to re-boot.
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And a power plant has to run 24-7, with only a yearly power-down for maintenance.
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So until the power station has its annual stoppage, new software cannot be installed.
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Stuxnet appeared to target a specific type of Scada system doing a specific job, and it did little damage to any other applications it infected.
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Langner is well-qualified to comment. 
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In 2010 he, along with two employees, took it upon himself to investigate a mystery computer worm known as Stuxnet, that was puzzling the big anti-virus companies.
What he discovered took his breath away.
It was clever enough to find its way from computer to computer, searching out its prey.
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And, containing over 15,000 lines of computer code, it exploited no fewer than four previously undiscovered software errors in Microsoft Windows.
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Such errors are extremely rare, suggesting that Stuxnet's creators were highly expert and very well-resourced.

Start Quote

It took Langner some six months to probe just a quarter of the virus. "If I'd wanted to do all of it I might have gone bust!" he jokes. 
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But his research had already drawn startling results.
Stuxnet's target, it turned out, was the system controlling uranium centrifuges at Iran's Natanz nuclear facility.
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There is now widespread speculation that the attack was the work of American or Israeli agents, or both.
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Whatever the truth, Langner estimates that it delayed Iran's nuclear project by around two years - no less than any air strike was expected to achieve - at a relatively small cost of around $10 million.
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This success, he says, means cyber weapons are here to stay.
Optimists say Stuxnet does at least suggest a scrap of reassurance.
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Professor Peter Sommer, an international expert in cyber crime, points out that the amount of research and highly skilled programming it involved would put weapons of this calibre beyond anyone but an advanced nation state.
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And states, he point out, usually behave rationally, thus ruling out indiscriminate attacks on civilian targets.
You don't necessarily want to cause total disruption.
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Because the results are likely to be unforeseen and uncontrollable.
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In other words, although one can conceive of attacks that might bring down the world financial system or bring down the internet, why would one want to do that?
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You would end up with something not that different from a nuclear winter.
But even this crumb of comfort is denied by Langner, who argues that, having now infected computers worldwide, Stuxnet's code is available to anyone clever enough to adapt it, including terrorists.
The attack vectors and exploits used by Stuxnet - they can be copied and re-used reliably against completely different targets.
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Until a year ago no one was aware of such an aggressive and sophisticated threat. 
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With Stuxnet that has changed. 
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It is on the table.
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The technology is out there on the internet."
One thing is for sure, he adds: If cyber weapons do become widespread, their targets will lie mostly in the west, rather than in countries like Iran, which have relatively little internet dependence.
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This means that the old rules of military deterrence which favoured powerful, technologically advanced countries like the United States do not apply:
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Responding in kind to a cyber attack could be effectively impossible.
This asymmetry is likely to grow, as developed countries become ever more internet-dependent.
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So far, the Internet Protocol format allows only 4.3 billion IP addresses, most of which have now been used.
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But this year, a new version is rolling out, providing an inexhaustible supply of addresses and so allowing exponential growth in connectivity.
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Expect to see far more machines than people online in the future.
In the home, fridges will automatically replenish themselves by talking to food suppliers; ovens and heating systems will respond to commands from your smartphone.
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Cars may even drive themselves, sharing GPS data to find the best routes.
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For industry, commerce and infrastructure, there will be even more reliance on cyber networks that critics claim are potentially vulnerable to intrusion.

Start Quote

"There will be practically infinite number of IP addresses," says former hacker Jason Moon. "
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Everything can have an IP address.
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And everything will have one.
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Now, that's great.
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But think what that's going to do for the hacker!
In fact, it has already become a challenge for even sensitive installations, let alone households, to remain offline.
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Although military and other critical networks are supposedly isolated from the public internet, attackers can target their contractors and suppliers, who plug into the "air-gapped" system at various times.
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Somewhere down the food chain, a vulnerable website or a rogue email will provide a way in.
According to Richard Clarke, the mighty American armed forces themselves are not immune, since their command; control, supplies, and even some weapons systems, also rely on digital systems.
The US military ran headlong into the cyber age.
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And we became very dependent on cyber devices without thinking it through.
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Without thinking that if someone got control of our software, what would we be able to do?
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Do we have backup systems?
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Can we go back to the old days?
The answer it seems is no.
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A new form of weapon appears to be emerging.
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And the world may have to learn to adapt.

Monday, May 21, 2012

Corporate power



Modern government could be interpreted as a device for projecting corporate power. 
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Since the 1980s, in Britain, the US and other nations, the primary mission of governments has been to grant their sponsors in the private sector ever greater access to public money and public life.
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There are several means by which they do so.
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The privatisation and outsourcing of public services.
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The stuffing of public committees with corporate executives.
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And the reshaping of laws and regulations to favour big business. 
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In the UK, the Health and Social Care Act extends the corporate domain in ways unimaginable even five years ago.
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With these increasing powers come diminishing obligations. 
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Through repeated cycles of deregulation, governments release big business from its duty of care towards both people and the planet. 
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While citizens are subject to ever more control – as the state extends surveillance and restricts our freedom to protest and assemble – companies are subject to ever less.
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Because of this Freedom of information laws should be extended to the private sector.
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The very idea of a corporation is made possible only by a blurring of the distinction between private and public. 
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Limited liability socialises risks that would otherwise be carried by a company's owners and directors, exempting them from the costs of the debts they incur or the disasters they cause. 
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The bailouts introduced us to an extreme form of this exemption: men like Fred Goodwin and Matt Ridley are left in peace to count their money while everyone else must pay for their mistakes.
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If you benefit from limited liability, the public should be permitted to scrutinise your business.
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Companies already have certain obligations towards transparency, such as the publication of financial statements and annual reports. 
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But these tell us only a little of what we need to know. 
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In News International's annual report, you will find none of the information disclosed at the Leveson inquiry, though it is of pressing public interest.
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Privatisation and outsourcing ensure that private business is, or should be, everyone's business.
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Private companies now provide services we are in no position to refuse, yet, unlike the state bodies they replace, they are not subject to the Freedom of Information Act. 
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The results can be catastrophic for public accounts.
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Companies are once again striking remarkable deals, hatched in secret, at the expense of taxpayers, pupils and patients. 
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Recently, for example, we learned that Circle Healthcare will be able to extract millions of pounds a year from a public hospital, Hinchingbrooke, which is in deep financial trouble. 
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Crucial information about the deal remains secret on the grounds of Circle's "commercial confidentiality".
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The principle of corporate transparency is already established in English law. 
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The Freedom of Information Act has a clause enabling the government to extend it to companies with public contracts. 
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Unsurprisingly, it has not been exercised. 
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The environmental information rules of 2004 define a public authority as any body providing public services, which includes corporations. 
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Why should this not apply universally?
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The Campaign for Freedom of Information points out that the Scottish government almost adopted this idea: it proposed extending the transparency laws to major government contractors. 
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Freedom of information is never absolute, nor should it be. 
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Companies should retain the right, to protect material that is of genuine commercial confidentiality; though they should not be allowed to use that as an excuse to withhold everything that might embarrass them. 
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The information commissioner should decide where the line falls, just as he does for public bodies today.
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A body that acts as if the world is watching presents less of a threat to the public interest than a body that knows it won't get caught. 
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Would News International have acted as it did if its emails could have been revealed as a matter of course rather than a matter of chance? 
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If it is true that "governments don't rule the world Goldman Sachs rules the world", should we not be entitled to know what Goldman Sachs is up to? 
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Is that not the only means we have of preventing its unelected power from becoming tyrannical?
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Unless we decide what we want and how we mean to obtain it – however remote it might now seem – we have no means of making social progress. 
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If we are to reclaim power from the corporations that have seized it, first we need to know what that power looks like.
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George Monbiot

Sunday, May 20, 2012

Problem in Dubai



Down on the beach next to the Dubai Offshore Sailing Club and the fishing harbour there's a stink: raw sewage is flowing into the sea close to prime tourist beaches.
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The putrid problem is caused by the illegal dumping of untreated sewage in Dubai's inland storm drain network, as the city's rapid growth outstrips its infrastructure.
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At Dubai's only sewage treatment plant there are long queues and serious delays.
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Truck drivers who are paid by the lorry load to collect waste from the city's septic tanks wait for several hours to dispose of their foul cargo legally.
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There simply is not the capacity to deal with all the human waste the city dwellers produce.
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After dark some drivers are taking a shortcut and dumping their loads straight into manholes meant only for rainwater.
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The result is raw sewage flowing directly into the once-clear blue sea of the Gulf - right next to prime swimming beaches.
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This is bad news for a city which depends on the tourists who flock to its shores.
'Within the standard'


The city's municipality has already closed one beach and says it is trying to catch the culprits.

It has imposed fines of up to $25,000 and threatened to confiscate tankers if the dumping persists.
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The municipality has tracked and caught drivers - many over the last few days," said Mohammed Abdul Rahman Hassan, Head of the Marine and Environmental Protection Section at Dubai Municipality.
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The municipality maintains that its latest test results show samples of the water are "within the standard".
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Samples were taken from three locations - the harbour, near the outfall and on the beach," explains Mr Hassan. "It is safe according to our report - within the safe limit.
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But independent tests arranged by the sailing club show the water to be highly contaminated with bacteria and the human faeces floating in the sea.



"Our tests show the water is not safe," said Keith Mutch, General Manager at the Dubai Offshore Ssailing Club.
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We have had to cancel sailing lessons until further notice - until there is a clean bill of health."
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So far there has been no contamination found near the city's five-star hotel strip but that is just a short distance along the beach and if the research done by the Sailing Club is anything to go by the pollution could get worse.
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I have been out in the middle of the night following these tanker drivers," said Mr Mutch. "We know what they are doing, and we know that they are doing it because there is a huge wait at the sewerage plant.
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This contamination is definitely happening elsewhere in the city."
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Only one storm water outlet is currently open but when the first rain comes to Dubai this winter other parts of the system, including those near the smart hotels will also need to be used.
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No-one yet knows exactly what those pipes might contain but everyone is hoping that something can be done before there is a need to find out.

Julia Wheeler - BBC

Have you ever seen such a line?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-pQdjwliLMA&feature=player_embedded

Saturday, May 19, 2012

ATM mistakes



ATMs can make mistakes. 

And when they do, it can cost you time and money to clean them up.

They can account a deposit amount incorrectly, dispense too little or too much cash, fail to give a receipt and keep a customer's banking card.

The most spectacular errors occur when ATMs dispense cash to anyone who walks by, including those without money in their accounts or even without accounts.

A couple of times a year, news reports tell of crowds gathering around ATMs that mistakenly begin spewing bills. 

In 2010, Bank of Ireland ATMs dispensed more cash to customers than they actually had in their accounts, according to The New York Times. 

One taxi driver with nothing in the bank walked away with 700 euros.


Mistakes Usually From Human Error


How often does it happen? 
Diebold Inc., a leading maker of ATMs, based in North Canton, Ohio, does not keep records of how many mistakes its machines make, the company says. 

A representative there says only that mistakes are rare.

However, mistakes do happen, says James Trocme, senior director of market research and knowledge management at Diebold. 
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While they don't know how often they happen, mistakes by the machines can usually be traced to some form of human error. 

Poor maintenance practices especially can lead to ATM foul-ups, Trocme says.

Although no one in the industry seems to know how often mistakes occur, they generally agree about what to do to avoid being victimized by a rogue ATM.


1. Always get a printed receipt. The receipt contains important information such as the transaction date and time and the machine identifier, says Nessa Feddis, senior counsel for American Bankers Association based in Washington, D.C. 

Among other things, this will allow the ATM owner to check the photographic record that is often made of transactions.

2. Count your cash.Safety concerns may sometimes preclude openly counting a fat stack of money.
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You need to be cognizant of your surroundings, particularly if there is anyone behind you waiting for the ATM.. 

But absolutely count the money. It's possible that a video record of the transaction could be used to confirm how many bills you count out.


3. Notify the bank or ATM owner. 

Usually you can find a phone number on the ATM, telling you whom to call in case the machine isn't located outside of a branch bank.

4. Act quickly. If you let the ATM owner know immediately, it will make it more likely that the company can trace the error..

An ATM error can leave you baffled, infuriated and not knowing where to turn. 

But if you take the right steps, the mistake is likely to get corrected,usually the consumer is  dealt with very well and is not left in a bad position.

Friday, May 18, 2012

Different race marriage


According to a new study by the Pew Research Center, almost 15 percent of all new American marriages in 2008 were between people of two different races. 
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There are now 4.8 million interracial marriages in the United States—about 1 in 12 marriages. 
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That number has doubled in the past 30 years, and has risen especially sharply among black populations. 
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Our acceptance threshold is rising too—about 83 percent of Americans say it is "all right for blacks and whites to date each other," compared with 48 percent in 1987. 
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And 63 percent of those surveyed say it "would be fine" if a family member were to get hitched to someone of a different race. 
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Young people actively approve of the trend; almost two-thirds of of Millennials said mixed-race families were "good for society."
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But that doesn't mean that all races—or genders—are intermarrying at the same rate. 
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Twenty-two percent of all black male newly-weds in 2008 married outside their race, compared with just nine percent of black females. 
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Meanwhile, a full 40 percent of Asian female newly-weds married a person of another race in 2008, compared with just 20 percent of Asian males. 
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The gender differences were negligible with white and Hispanics
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So, yes, we've come a long way from the court case Loving v Virginia, but that doesn't mean racial stereotypes and biases have ceased to exist.
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Even among those who choose to marry outside their race. 
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There are still well-documented prejudices about the oft fetishized docility of Asian women.
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The marriageability, or lack thereof, of black women.
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And the virility, or lack thereof of both black and Asian men. 
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No matter how much we tout the melting pot concept, our "personal preferences" are often tinged with ingrained stereotypes. 
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And social pressures still do affect interracial marriages.
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The study found they were more likely to end in divorce. 
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Intermarriage may no longer be illegal or even taboo.
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But it's still wrapped up in our deeply rooted cultural biases.
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Biases that will take generations to dispel.
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When we cast our eyes further afield we find similar trends in most Western European countries.
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Into Eastern Europe and Russia things are changing slower, but then there are less other races living there.
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Racism is alive to a greater degree where people have less experience of each other.
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Where politically it is useful to denigrate those of other races.
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Where ignorance is greater.


There we find racism alive and well.