Sunday, August 29, 2010


There is an illusion of understanding in our modern world

Everyone thinks he knows what is going on in a world which is more complicated or random than they realise

The overvaluation of factual information and the real handicap of authoritative and learned people particularly when they create categories

Our minds are wonderful expelling machines capable of making sense out of almost anything

Unfortunately we can only asses matters after the fact

Pundits are capable of of providing convincing explanations for all manner of phenomena after the fact

The more intelligent the person the better sounding the explanation

All these accounts appear to be logically coherent and devoid of inconsistencies

Upon examination however they are found to be anything but

Too late by the time objections arise

Even if they are allowed, which often they are not being obscured in official reports, committees and commissions to name but a few ways of hiding things

Or we have already moved on

Modern media like to make us think that we know more than we actually do

But this does not happen everywhere

Models and constructions, intellectual maps of reality are not always wrong

They are wrong only in some specific applications

The difficulty is that you do not know before where the map will be wrong

Only the fact that they will be wrong

And the mistakes this causes can lead to very severe consequences

This is where the gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide

And never more than in these confusing times where financial, business, social, climate and other certainties are anything but today

No one can see the next unexpected event

But we can be very sure that there is one coming down the road towards us

No if, only when and what

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