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Saturday, August 28, 2010
Rare events
Rare events = uncertainty
The gap between what you know and what you think you know becomes dangerously wide
Our world is dominated by the extreme
The unknown and the very improbable
Note please how the very improbable impacts this planet
The improbable is what really flattens us
Often but not always events from nature
Financial crisis - man made
Tsunami - nature
Volcano = ash clouds - nature
Earthquakes - nature
And yet and yet society spends most of it's energy and time engaged in small talk focusing on the known and the repeated
A switch is required in our thinking because the improbable is becoming more frequent
We need to use the extreme event as a starting point and not treat it as an exception
While both human nature and social science seem to conspire to hide the knowledge from us
Our times demand that we acknowledge that the improbable is becoming more common
Response is one thing
Anticipation quite another
Being flattened by a tsunami is a catastrophe
Being aware of the possibility another step up
Being warned in time yet another
Planning and building sensibly even more intelligent
More and more extreme weather is our new experience
Our new reality
The unexpected is to be expected
Shock, horror, surprise will no longer do
The unexpected is the norm that we need to think about, not ignore until it flattens us again
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