Tuesday, October 12, 2010

Test for Doctors

 A test of a disease presents a rate of 5% false positives
The disease strikes 1/1,000 of the population
People are tested at random, regardless of whether they are suspected of having the disease or not
A Patent's test is positive
What is the probability of the patient being stricken with the disease?
Most doctors answered 95% simply taking into account the fact that the test has a 95% accuracy rate
The answer is the conditional probability that the patient is sick and the tests show it close to 2%
Less than one in five doctors got this right
An embarrassing result for the medical profession!
Think of the number of times you will be given a medication that carries damaging side effects for a given disease you were told you had, when you may only have a 2% probability of being infected with it!
The above was taken from Deborah Bennett's 'Randomness'

Ask questions of your doctor

There are good, bad and indifferent doctors

As there are used car salesmen or engineers

Most doctors today are under pressure

Most proscribe 'something' to every patient


Because patients expect 'something'

And pills or potions are 'something'

So ask questions when you do not understand

Or when you feel uneasy

It's your life or that of your child maybe

Your health is the most important thing you have, you personally that is

Take responsibility for your own life and health

When in doubt get a second opinion

Ask questions go online

If your Doctor does not like answering questions then consider changing doctors

If he treats you like a grade A moron then consider changing doctors

Your health is too important to be looked after by anyone other than yourself

Inform yourself

Take responsibility for your own health

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