Probability

Ask your local mathematician to define probability and he would most likely show you how to compute it
.
Probability is not about the odds but about the belief in the existence of an alternative outcome cause or motive
.
Ancients probability always considered by them to be nothing beyond a subjective and fluid measure of beliefs
.
Probability defines how we talk and think about events and issues
.
Seldom do we individually challenge or think about the probability of things
.
We accept what we are told
.
We seldom challenge
.
Spin people on the other hand challenge everything to defend their clients position
.
Spurious and genuine facts are jumbled into pictures to present the client in a favourable way
.
Trade organisations
.
Pressure groups
.
Individuals
.
And we shrug our shoulders because it is hard work to determine probabilities
.
Yet they impact on us all the time
.
Economic forecasts
.
Statistics ever more of them
.
All or most merely project out what we know of the past into the future
.
Dangerous for all of us because today it is clear what we know of the past is not going to help us understand the future
.
Or the need to adjust our economic models
.
Or our Social models
.
Or our climate models
.
All are very unlikely to perform to previously seen patterns
.
Probabilities are different
.
Because they are unknown and difficult to predict we continue to project the past into the future
.
Danger time because this will not give us the warnings we need
.
Different thinking is required to predict probabilities
.
To understand them even
.
Probabilities are more difficult to look at
.
This is why we continue to project the past into the future
.
It is easier
.
Unfortunately in these increasingly volatile times this will not help us much
.
As past to future projections fail to materialise
.
The unexpected will increasingly impact upon us often with violent outcomes